As Myanmar prepares to go to the polls in November, Marip Htu shows little sign of interest. A mother of four, she first fled her home village in 2011 following the collapse of a ceasefire between Myanmar’s military and the Kachin Independence Organisation (KIO). Then, when the National League for Democracy (NLD) won a landslide victory five years ago, she hoped that the party would succeed in brokering a peace agreement that would allow her to return home. Instead, her misery only intensified: In 2017, a heavy Tatmadaw offensive forced her to flee the Zai Awng camp where she and her family had taken shelter. And rather than helping, the government imposed restrictions on aid access to displaced populations.

“We were expecting Daw Aung San Suu Kyi’s government to lead the country and people to a better future,” said Marip Htu, who now lives in the Sha-it Yang camp for internally displaced persons (IDPs), located in a remote, mountainous area under KI0 control. “Unfortunately, although the NLD won the 2015 elections, the situation for IDPs is even worse than before,” she told Myanmar Now.

Election fever has swept much of the country, but in KIO-controlled areas, few show any enthusiasm. Most of the people living here, including some 38,000 IDPs, will not be able to vote, while many, including Marip Htu, don’t see the point of voting under a political system that has delivered no meaningful change to their lives.

Disappointment with Myanmar politics is nothing new to the Kachin. The KIO was established in 1960 to seek self-determination for the Kachin under a federal union. This was no more than they had been promised under the Panglong Agreement of 1947:“full autonomy in internal administration” for the Kachin, Shan and Chin peoples. But this agreement, which paved the way for Myanmar’s independence from Britain, was never honoured; and two years after the KIO was formed, the Tatmadaw seized power, effectively ending any chance of the federal union envisioned at Panglong becoming a reality.

Even after the military finally relinquished direct control of the country half a century later, its 2008 constitution guaranteed the Tatmadaw the final say in matters of national security and the “non-disintegration” of the Union. And no sooner did Myanmar’s generals hand over the reins to a quasi-civilian government in early 2011 than a 17-year ceasefire with the KIO fell apart. Nearly a decade later, more than 100,000 civilians have been displaced across Kachin state and northern Shan state, most of them still in camps.

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Lost in limbo

Headquartered in the town of Laiza, the KIO controls much of Kachin state’s border with China.

Although the KIO has its own de facto government, complete with education, healthcare and humanitarian aid systems, its territory is not clearly defined or officially recognised by Naypyitaw.

In 2015, the NLD pledged during its election campaign to make peace a priority, seek constitutional reform, and work toward a democratic federal union. Five years later, however, the constitution remains virtually unchanged, and despite four Union-level peace conferences—dubbed the “21st Century Panglong”—no bilateral ceasefire agreement has been reached between the KIO and the Tatmadaw. Instead, armed clashes continue and talks remain at a standstill. In August, the KIO and its allies boycotted the fourth Panglong peace conference after the Arakan Army was not invited.

“We thought the NLD would be able to change our country,” said Nawng Lat, an IDP youth leader at the Je Yang camp near Laiza. “Looking at what the NLD has achieved over the past five years, the difference between expectation and reality is like being unable to scratch an itch…. The roles and rights of ethnic people to govern were not addressed. Ethnic reconciliation was not, in reality, that successful. From a displaced person’s point of view, the past five years didn’t benefit us much.”

Col. Nhpang Naw Bu, head of the KIO’s news and information department, expressed his dissatisfaction in starker terms. “According to our observation, there has not been much progress during the NLD’s term regarding peace talks and political dialogue,” he told Myanmar Now. “In other words, we can say it was an unsuccessful or failed process.”

In August, the KIO stated that no polling stations were to be established in areas under its control, as the group does not accept elections held under the 2008 constitution. On October 16, the Union Election Commission (UEC) announced that elections would be cancelled in 192 village tracts across 11 of Kachin state’s 18 townships, including all areas under KIO control, due to the alleged inability to hold free and fair elections in these areas within the context of the conflict. People in many of these areas were also disenfranchised in 2015, when polling was cancelled in 211 village tracts across the state, including all KIO-controlled areas.

While the KIO permits IDPs living within its territory to return to their villages of origin to cast ballots, polling has also been cancelled in many of these places. Even in areas where elections will occur, returning remains risky, as anyone accused of associating with the KIO can be charged under the Unlawful Associations Act.

The inability to safely and permanently return home has been a key frustration for many Kachin IDPs during the NLD’s first term. Weary from prolonged displacement, many have expressed concern that they could be displaced again should they return before the KIO and Tatmadaw sign a bilateral ceasefire agreement. They also worry about landmines—as well as another menace planted in the soil: banana plantations that now cover much of the farmland they once occupied.

“It’s been a long time since we were displaced,” said Marip Htu. “We’re very anxious. We’re not sure if we will ever be able to return. And even if we do, we can’t be sure we will get back the land we lost.”

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‘Nothing to do with us’

Despite her low expectations of next month’s election, Marip Htu said she would still welcome any political party that advanced IDP issues. “If there is anyone who represents our people, naturally, we want to support them,” she said.

Chyauhpa Kasha, a Baptist minister in the town of Maga Yang, north of Laiza, took a similar view. Unlike the other four people Myanmar Now spoke to in KIO-controlled territory, she seemed genuinely interested in voting—in particular, for the Kachin State People’s Party (KSPP), which has vowed to speak up for IDPs and address their calls for safe and voluntary returns. “I think if general elections could be held in this area it would be great,” she said. “Even though this is a KIO-controlled area, we are still Myanmar citizens.”

For others interviewed, however, such sentiments no longer seem relevant. In 2015, Nawng Lat was still optimistic that the 2008 constitution could be amended through the political process. Today, however, he has given up on that idea. “No matter which government is elected, the war will continue. The situation in KIO-controlled areas will not change that much,” he said.

“For those of us living in these camps, it’s as if the election has nothing to do with us,” said the 32-year-old. Forced to abandon his educational pursuits because of the war, he has instead directed his energies toward Christian fellowship and youth mobilization, but he said that frustration with the military’s entrenched power has driven many other young people to seek political change through armed struggle.

Hkun Seng (not his real name) is one such youth. The 28-year-old from Mohnyin township said he joined the KIO in 2018 with the aim of serving the Kachin people and promoting the emergence of a peaceful, prosperous, and democratic society. He said he hoped all of Myanmar’s people would one day be able to access their rights within a federal union, but that he didn’t believe elections were the way to reach this goal. “I think it might be difficult for political parties to solve or represent the issues of importance to me, due to limits under the 2008 constitution,” he said.

“Although parties may try their best to make a change, they will not be able to unless the constitution is abolished or amended.” He added that as someone taking part in the Kachin revolution, he wouldn’t vote for any party even if he had the chance.

The view that elections are futile under the 2008 constitution was also strongly emphasized by Aung Htoo, a human rights lawyer who founded the independent rights-based Legal Aid Network and serves as principal of the Federal Law Academy in the town of Mai Ja Yang.

“I don’t see any potential toward nationwide peace and a genuine federal union in Burma, even if elections are held a thousand times under the 2008 constitution,” he told Myanmar Now. “Even if ethnic parties increase their representation in the legislative assemblies, they would be unable to make any remarkable change for society due to insurmountable restrictions under the constitution.”

A joint effort

The KSPP, which was formed in June 2019 through the merger of several smaller parties, hopes to challenge that assertion. “We have to approach amending the constitution from two sides,” the KSPP’s youth leader, Jan Khone, told Myanmar Now. “Political parties have to act as a left hand and ethnic armed organizations as a right hand. Both sides have to work together, as we have the same ambition of establishing a genuine federal union, even though we have different approaches.”

Nhkum Tang Goon, the spokesperson for the Kachin National Consultative Assembly, based in the state capital, Myitkyina, also believes in the possibility of progress through electoral processes.

“Winning the elections is crucial for the ethnic parties to build the political system that we want,” he said. “If ethnic parties win a majority of elected seats in state assemblies and gain seats in the Union parliament, they can make decisions and negotiate to a certain level. In this way, I hope we can make a real change for our nation,” he said, adding that whatever the outcome of elections, those in power should take the demands of ethnic armed organisations seriously in order to promote lasting peace.

Col. Naw Bu also seemed to indicate a broader perspective on solutions to the conflict. “To make a real change for Myanmar, we must work together with the public. I don’t think parliament alone can make a change. We, the public and the parliament, should be united to make a change.”

Still, he added, the 2008 constitution remains an obstacle that must be overcome before real progress is possible. “If the 2008 constitution isn’t changed, the peace process and the political situation will not move forward or be effective. In contrast, if a new government can change the 2008 constitution, I think there will be a real change for our country's politics and the peace process,” he said.