As the results rolled in after Myanmar’s historic 2015 election, the country’s central lowlands turned into a sea of red; the National League for Democracy (NLD) had swept the Bamar-dominated regions with almost no resistance. 

There was a notable outlier though: the town of Meiktila, where the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) candidate, Dr Maung Thin, picked up two thirds of the 150,000 votes to deal a humiliating blow to the NLD’s Dr Win Soe Oo. 

“We enjoyed an overwhelming victory,” Maung Thin told Myanmar Now with a chuckle during a phone interview earlier this month.

In total, the USDP took three of the four national parliamentary seats up for grabs in Meiktila and the surrounding area. 

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NLD stalwart Win Htein, who hails from Meiktila and served on the party’s Central Election Campaign Committee in 2015, later wrote that he was “crushed” by the defeat in his hometown even as the party enjoyed a national landslide. 

The reason for this upset remains a matter of debate. Some note that the district is home to several military barracks, and suspect the fact that soldiers cast their votes without observers present skewed the results in favour of the military-backed USDP.

Others believe a surge of nationalism following anti-Muslim riots that killed dozens in the town in 2013 played a role. There were even rumours ahead of the vote that an NLD win would lead to more violence.

For Win Htein, though, the answer was much simpler. “When I mulled over the reason for our defeat, I came to the conclusion that their campaigns were well planned. President Thein Sein visited Meiktila three times during the campaign period,” he wrote in his 2018 book, The Life Cycle. 

Five years later, the NLD has used its time in government to ban voting within barracks and deal several blows against the Buddhist nationalist movement that has worked to undermine the party.  

When Myanmar goes to the polls again in November, the NLD stands to lose at least some ground to the opposition parties it so effortlessly defeated last time. 

An NLD win in Meiktila will be a sign the party can still capitalise on the goodwill it won through decades fighting the junta, despite five years in power that have been marked by a failure to amend the constitution as promised, to rein in the military’s wars in ethnic areas, or to scrap numerous oppressive laws.

If the USDP holds Meiktila it will bolster hopes that it can establish itself as a meaningful opposition party after being almost wiped out in 2015, especially if it also makes gains elsewhere. 

Key figures from both parties expect to see large amounts of energy and resources poured into the area during the campaign. 

New rules for soldiers 

This year military personnel will have to vote outside of their barracks for the first time. In 2015 election observers were unable to enter military polling stations and voter lists were kept secret, fuelling suspicions of cheating.

Win Soe Oo believes he lost the race for the Lower House seat partly because the 15,000 service personnel living in barracks in the constituency were all pressured into voting for his USDP opponent.  

“The battalion commanders were under pressure. One or two votes for red would have landed them in hot water. We didn’t get a single vote because they were forced not to vote for us,” Win Soe Oo said. 

Myanmar Now was unable to confirm Win Soe Oo’s claim because the vote counts from inside barracks were not made public. 

This year, 23 polling stations for military personnel in Meiktila will be set up outside of barracks, where it is hoped election observers will have free access. 

But Win Soe Oo still fears soldiers will be under pressure from superiors. “The question is whether they are allowed to vote freely,” he said.

Zaw Zaw Aung, secretary of the NLD’s Meiktila branch, said he believed non-Army members of the military quietly favoured the NLD and would vote for them if they felt they could do so freely.  

“I don’t guarantee the infantry will vote for the NLD but NLD will win most of the votes from the rest of the military if they are allowed to vote freely at polling booths outside military barracks,” he said. 

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Win Soe Oo said NLD candidates were defeated in 2015 election because of advance votes, military votes and, he alleged, double voting, which some suspect soldiers whose barracks are in a different constituency than their hometown are able to do. 

He alleged that Maung Thin defeated him partly because soldiers double voted. Myanmar Now was unable to verify the claim. 

Maung Thin denied the claim, saying he defeated Win Soe Oo not because of the military and advance-registered voters, but because of strong support for the USDP among the general population in Meiktila.

“I only got slightly more than 9000 votes from the military at the time,” Maung Thin said. “So, I dare say my victory was not because of the military votes.”

Meiktila district election commission secretary, Myo Min Htike, said his office was working to get an accurate list of military voters ahead of the November 8 vote. 

He advised military personnel to vote in person at a polling station, rather than in advance, to ensure a free and fair election. 

“It is more reassuring to vote personally at the nearest polling station,” he said. “There can be some hindrance if they have to wait for the advance voting ballots we send,” Myo Min Htike said.

Hardline Buddhists on the back foot 

Another change working in the NLD’s favour is the fact a hardcore Buddhist nationalist movement that worked against them in 2015 appears to have been weakened in recent years. 

Unlike last time, there are no members of Ma Ba Tha active in the area agitating against the NLD, local residents told Myanmar Now. The government officially abolished the group in 2017, although its members have sought to continue their activities under a new name.  

And one of the movement’s key leaders, U Wirathu, is now a fugitive after the government hit him with a charge of sedition last year for a speech he gave attacking State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi.  

But USDP candidates still hope to tap nationalist sentiments to turn people against the ruling party. 

“Voters need to consider which party can better safeguard our three national causes - race, culture and religion,” said Maung Thin, who is running again to defend his Lower House seat. 

Dr Sint Soe, who is also a former university rector, will compete for the NLD this year to unseat Maung Thin. He said he will target rural voters, noting that the constituency includes 380 villages. 

While in government the NLD has improved transportation and access to electricity in rural areas, he said. “We hope for the kind of support we didn’t receive in 2015 from village voters,” he said.

While Zaw Zaw Aung, the NLD secretary for Meiktila, said he is more satisfied with this year’s candidates than those in 2015, he thinks the USDP incumbents still have the upper hand. 

“USDP candidates can campaign personally in the region and can use the local development funds because they are the current MPs,” Zaw Zaw Aung said. 

“The competition will be fierce. It will be a do-or-die battle for us,” he said.